Publications

Here you can find the most recent list of my peer reviewed publications. For a complete list of my citations you can check my Google Scholar profile.

In press and R&R

Traffic Safety Externalities of Urban Construction: Evidence from New York City
With Brad Humphreys and Heather Stephens. Working paper.
Abstract
Urban development and redevelopment, through building construction, demolition, and renovation, are essential to accommodate urban growth and modernize infrastructure. However, these processes can generate unintended externalities, including increased traffic collisions, injuries, and fatalities. This study examines the impact of urban development, measured through construction permit activity, on vehicle collisions in New York City (NYC) from 2013 to 2018. Using data at the census block level, we find that construction sites are associated with a 2% increase in the number of collisions, an 11% increase in injuries, and a 10% increase in fatalities. Cyclists and pedestrians are particularly vulnerable. Heterogeneous effects reveal that new construction and building demolition represent the most disruptive events. High concentrations of construction sites also amplify risks. The estimated marginal costs of these construction-related traffic disruptions range from $1,215 to $6,471 per NYC resident. These findings emphasize the need for optimized construction permit management and targeted urban planning to mitigate the social costs associated with urban growth.
Revise and Resubmit Journal of Regional Science
Federal Research Grants and Regional Economic Impact: Evidence from West Virginia University
With Heather Stephens. Working paper.
Abstract
This study estimates the economic impact of federal research grant funding at West Virginia University in 2023 using a multiregional input-output model for all 55 West Virginia counties. Excluding facilities and administrative costs, West Virginia University received $148 million in federal research funding. According to our estimates, the expenditure of these funds supported approximately 3,171 jobs, $92.1 million in labor income, $250.2 million in statewide gross output, $139.4 million in gross domestic product (GDP), and $32.5 million in tax revenues. Indirect and induced effects accounted for a substantial share of the total economic impact. Although most impacts were concentrated in counties hosting WVU campuses, approximately 2.7% of labor income and 3.7% of gross output accrued to other West Virginia counties.
Forthcoming Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy

Published Research

Assessing the Local Cost of Urban Climate Resilience: An Analysis of the NYC Financial District and Seaport Climate Resilience (FiDi) Master Plan
With Caroline Welter. 2025.
Papers in Regional Science, 104(5), 100110.
Abstract
This study assesses the economic, environmental, and fiscal implications of New York City's Financial District and Seaport Climate Resilience Master Plan, a proposed investment of $5–7 billion over 10–15 years. We combine multi-regional input-output modeling with an S-curve framework to simulate expenditure timing, economic interactions across New York City, and regional spillover effects. The findings suggest that the project could generate substantial net economic benefits, although environmental impacts may be concentrated during particular construction phases. The analysis also highlights the importance of intergovernmental coordination and offers a framework for evaluating large-scale climate adaptation investments before implementation.
Published Paper
Regional Economic Impacts of COVID-19 Lockdowns and Mitigation Effects of Stimulus Checks and Unemployment Insurance
With Caroline Welter, Amir Ferreira Neto, and Fernando Perobelli. 2025.
Economic Analysis and Policy.
Abstract
This paper develops a framework for estimating the regional economic consequences of major disruptions using publicly available information. Applying a partial hypothetical input-output extraction approach with higher-frequency data, we simulate changes in value added and employment in Southwest Florida during the COVID-19 pandemic. The results reveal a substantial contraction in the second quarter of 2020, followed by a pronounced recovery in the third quarter and a smaller decline in the fourth. Stimulus payments and unemployment insurance helped mitigate economic losses but did not fully reverse the downturn. Household spending behavior, savings decisions, and supply constraints limited the effectiveness of income support. The framework provides a tool for assessing regional crisis-response policies.
Published Paper
Land Use and Regulating Ecosystem Services Scenarios for the Brazilian Pantanal and Its Surroundings Under Different Storylines of Future Regional Development
With coauthors. 2025.
Conservation Science and Practice, e70012.
Abstract
This study uses process-based modeling to explore how alternative development pathways could affect land use and ecosystem services in the Brazilian Pantanal and surrounding highlands by 2050. The simulations examine soil erosion, sediment production, nutrient retention, water quality, and carbon storage. Compared with a business-as-usual scenario, a sustainability-oriented pathway could reduce soil losses and sediment yield by approximately 45%, improve nutrient retention by 2%, and increase above-ground carbon storage by 7%. Conversely, accelerated human-driven land-use changes could increase soil loss by 8% and sediment yield by 11%, while reducing nutrient retention and carbon storage. These findings demonstrate how alternative development strategies can influence the long-term provision of ecosystem services.
Published Paper
Impacts of Road Transport Infrastructure Investments on the Latin American Integration Route
With Mateus Boldrine Abrita, Angelo Rondina Neto, Ana Paula Camilo, Rafaella Stradiotto Vignandi, Guilherme Espíndola Junior, Vanessa Weber, Nelagley Marques, and Ruberval Franco Maciel. 2024.
Regional Science Policy & Practice, 16(8), 100061.
Abstract
This paper evaluates the short-term economic consequences of road infrastructure investments associated with the Latin American Integration Route in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. Using structural impact analysis and three alternative investment scenarios, we estimate the effects on regional GDP, productive sectors, and municipalities. The simulations suggest that these investments can stimulate economic activity, although the benefits differ substantially across sectors and locations, with Campo Grande emerging as an important beneficiary. Transport infrastructure spending also exhibits relatively limited geographic dispersion compared with other investments. Methodologically, the study incorporates S-curve investment scheduling and spatial location quotients to estimate project expenditure patterns and distribute their impacts geographically, supporting more spatially informed public investment planning.
Published Paper
Dynamics of Local Productive Arrangements in the Municipalities of Mato Grosso do Sul Considering the Transformations of the Bioceanic Corridor
With Mateus Boldrine Abrita, Rafaella Stradiotto Vignandi, Angelo Rondina Neto, Ana Paula Camilo Pereira, Guilherme Espíndola Junior, Nelagley Marques, Vanessa Aparecida de Moraes Weber, and Ruberval Franco Maciel. 2023.
PLOS ONE, 18(4), e0284023.
Abstract
This paper examines how the emerging Bioceanic Corridor may influence local productive arrangements in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. The corridor is designed to improve transportation links between the region and ports in northern Chile, potentially shortening trade routes between South America and Asia. Using spatial econometric methods, the study identifies patterns of productive specialization and analyzes the regional economic opportunities associated with the new logistics network. The findings indicate that the corridor could support economic development and competitiveness. However, realizing these benefits requires coordinated public policies and effective regional integration. Without appropriate planning, the corridor may reinforce existing geographic inequalities rather than promote broadly distributed development.
Published Paper
Identification and Analysis of the Evolution of Local Productive Arrangements
With Caroline Welter and Luiz Cypriano. 2021.
Journal of Regional Analysis & Policy, 51(2), 49–66.
Abstract
This study identifies and examines changes in local productive arrangements across the extractive and manufacturing industries of Paraná, Brazil, between 2006 and 2016. The empirical strategy combines a normalized concentration index with exploratory spatial data analysis, including global and local Moran's I statistics. The analysis identifies 57 industrial productive arrangements spanning 23 economic sectors, particularly concentrated in the Curitiba Metropolitan Region and North Central Paraná. The results indicate continued consolidation and development of these industrial clusters over the period, especially around Curitiba and Londrina. Prominent sectors include food and beverages, textiles and clothing, wood and furniture, machinery and equipment, rubber, and plastics.
Published Paper
Pre-Doctoral Peer Reviewed Publications: click to view full list

2021

  1. Welter, C., Paetzhold, T., Centuriao, D. & Schneider, M. (2021). The heterodox stabilization plans: main effects for the Brazilian economy in the period from 1985 to 1989. Brazilian Journal of Development, 7(3), 23014–23036.

  2. Frainer, D., Welter, C.A. & Centuriao, D. (2021). Comparison between cattle complexes. Agricultural Policy Journal, 30(2), 8.

  3. Abrita, M., Centuriao, D., Rondina Neto, A. & Vignandi, R. (2021). Latin American Integration Route and the State of Mato Grosso do Sul: productive characterization, threats, and possibilities of promotion. International Journal of Local Development, 22(4), 1093–1111.

2020

  1. Centuriao, D., Welter, C. & Abrita, M. (2020). Business challenges and policy suggestions in face of the Covid-19 pandemic.. Economia em Revista, 28(1), 54–65.

  2. Welter, C., Batista, A., Centuriao, D. & Rippel, R. (2020). Economic growth in Western Parana: an analysis based on regional indicators. Parana Development Journal, 41(138), .

  3. Centuriao, D., Welter, C. & Frainer, D. (2020). Development of the municipalities in Mato Grosso do Sul: an analysis from a synthetic multidimensional indicator. Brazilian Journal of the Environment, 8(4), .

  4. Welter, C. & Centuriao, D. (2020). Economic growth in Mato Grosso do Sul: polarization and heterogeneity. GEOFRONTER, 6(1), .

  5. Almeida Gabriel, F., Centuriao, D., Welter, C. & Silva, G. (2020). Governance structures and transaction attributes in the Ribas do Rio Pardo (MS) agroindustrial forest complex. REDES - Regional Development Journal, 25(2), 762–781.

2016

  1. Centuriao, D. (2016). Mapping a florest agroindustrial complex in Ribas do Rio Pardo, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. , 63(2), 21–33.

2014

  1. Mariani, M., Fagundes, M., Arruda, D., Schmidt, V. & Centuriao, D. (2014). Identification of key variables for the promotion of local development through tourism in the city of Corumbá/MS/Brazil: an application do SWOT Analysis.. PASOS: Revista de Turismo y Patrimonio Cultural, 12(1), 65–78.

2013

  1. Centuriao, D., Fagundes, M. & Schimdt, V. (2013). Discussion on public policies with influence on solidarity economic enterprises linked to tourism in Corumbá-MS. Administração Pública e Gestão Social, 5(3), 108–115.



Policy Briefs and Reports

The Impact of West Virginia University Federal Research Grant Funding on the State's Economy
With Heather Stephens. 2025.
Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University.
Abstract
This report evaluates the economic impact of federal research funding received by West Virginia University's four campuses. In 2023, WVU received $148 million in federal research grants, excluding facilities and administrative costs. These expenditures generated approximately $250.2 million in gross economic output, $139.4 million in GDP, $92.1 million in labor income, and supported approximately 3,171 jobs across the state. The analysis uses a multi-regional input-output model to capture direct, indirect, and induced effects, including economic activity extending beyond counties hosting WVU campuses. Every dollar of federal research spending generated approximately $1.69 in gross output and $0.62 in labor income. The findings highlight the contribution of university research funding to economic activity and regional development in West Virginia.
Published Report